• Iran's IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any traffic in this strait will be severely dealt with; traffic of any ship "to and from" the ports of origin of the allies of the enemies is prohibited from any corridor. Three container ships started to move but were turned back with a warning.
• China's MOFCOM said it has launched a probe regarding US trade measures and green products; China to investigate US trade practices starting March 27th; probe to conclude within...

• US President Trump announced a 10-day pause in planned strikes on energy plants to Monday, 6th April 2026 at 8 PM, at the request of the Iranian government, while he added that talks with Iran are going very well.
• Iran wants the US to dial back demands in the 15-point peace plan before starting any talks, according to WSJ, citing sources, while Iran is open to the possibility of talks but deems the US proposals excessive.
• Iranian officials were said to be interested...

• Axios reported that the US Pentagon is preparing for massive "final blow" of Iran war that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign.
• Global equities under pressure as the Iran war persists, Tech falters following Google update.
• DXY is essentially flat, G10s incrementally lower. 
• Fixed income action is dictated by energy movements as numerous BoE and Fed officials await.
• Crude...

• US President Trump told aides he wants a speedy end to the Iran war and wants to wrap up the conflict in the coming weeks, while he informed advisers that he thinks the conflict is in the final stages.
• Israeli media reported that US President Trump may announce a ceasefire with Iran by next Saturday, even without reaching a final agreement, while a separate report noted the working assumption in Israel is that Trump may announce a ceasefire by this coming Saturday, according to N12...

• US special envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working on a mechanism which aims for a one-month ceasefire, while this would be very similar to understandings in Gaza and Lebanon, and a 15-point agreement will be negotiated during the month of a possible ceasefire.
• Iran has reportedly received the 15-point US ceasefire proposal, according to AP citing Pakistani officials.
• Crude slips as an Iranian ceasefire framework emerges.
• Global equities...

• US President Trump said they are having tremendous success in Iran and that Iran has no leaders left, while he said the US is talking to the right people and they want to make a deal. Trump said they are in negotiations right now with Iran and that Iran is talking sense.
• US President Trump said they are going to make a deal with Iran, and Iran gave the US a significant prize/present worth a tremendous amount of money, which is related to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump did not offer any more...

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is said to have secretly informed US Envoy Witkoff of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s agreement to negotiate, Al Arabiya reports citing Israeli press citing sources.
• European equities subdued while PUIG SM surges on EL merger; US equity futures pull back from Monday's highs.
• DXY finds its footing following recent losses, Antipodeans lag, EUR digests PMIs which indicate slowing growth.
• Fixed income...

• US President Trump reiterated that the US and Iran had preliminary talks over the past few days, and that they had very good discussions with Iran.
• Iran denied talks with the US and called it fake news, but said messages had been conveyed in recent days through several friendly countries.
• Washington set April 9th as the date to end the war on Iran, according to an Israeli official cited by Yedioth Ahronoth.
• US officials said the Strait of...

• US President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday evening at 19:44EDT/23:44GMT to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST”.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt.
• Crude buoyed amid US-Iran threat...

• US President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday evening at 19:44EDT/23:44GMT to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST”.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt.
• US President Trump posted earlier on...

• MON: Italian Judicial Referendum, Japanese CPI (Feb)
• TUE: BoJ Minutes (Jan), EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Mar)
• WED: Riksbank Minutes, ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Feb), German Ifo Survey (Mar), US Durable Goods (Feb)
• THU: Norges Bank Policy Announcement, German GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr)
• FRI: UK Retail Sales (Feb), Moody's on Italy

JAPANESE CPI (MON): National CPI for February is...

• The Trump Administration is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing sources.
• Crude edges higher amid the US plans to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 
• European equities give back earlier gains following the Axios report; SMCI nose-dives pre-market amid a probe.
• DXY trims some of Thursday's losses as crude futures...

• The US Pentagon is considering sending more troops to the Middle East, according to Politico sources who stated the size and scope of additional deployments are still evolving.
• Saudi officials see the base case for oil to rise to USD 180/bbl if the disruptions persist until late April, according to WSJ.
• APAC stocks were mostly subdued but with downside limited as the region reacted to the recent oil swings, deluge of central bank meetings and mixed geopolitical...

• Iran's armed forces said Iran's retaliation against attacks on its energy infrastructure is not yet complete, SNN reported; any repeat of such attacks will lead to a far stronger retaliation against the enemy, enemy infrastructure and that of their allies.
• US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars; added that the US will retaliate by...

• US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars.
• US President Trump said the US will retaliate by massively blowing up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.
• The Fed left rates on hold as expected in an 11-1 vote split, while dot plots were largely unchanged, with little reaction...

• Israel attempted to assassinate Iran's Intelligence Minister Khatib overnight, Jerusalem Post reported, citing an Israeli official, but is still awaiting the results of the target.  
• Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran will target US forces wherever they assemble, including near urban areas. Iran fired retaliatory missiles towards Tel Aviv for the killing of Larijani.
• European equities gain, Banks benefiting from a delay in capital requirements; US equity...

• US President Trump said they had a big day on Tuesday, knocking out targets, and said it will be a couple of weeks regarding Iran, not much longer, and that they are way ahead of schedule.
• Iran confirmed that its security chief Larijani was killed, according to Iranian media.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran will target US forces wherever they assemble, including near urban areas, he understands neighbours' concerns and holds the US responsible for the...

• A senior Iranian official said the new Supreme Leader rejected proposals that were sent to Iran's Foreign Ministry by two intermediary countries, with the Leader stating it is not the right time for peace and that the US and Israel must be defeated.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said Iran's Top Security Chief Larijani was killed in the airstrike; Iran has not confirmed the status of Larijani.
• Crude gains in choppy trade as the Iranian war continues; metals move...

• US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and is talking with their people, but he does not know if Iran is ready yet.
• US Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi have reportedly been in contact over text messages in recent days; Iran denied these reports.
• US President Trump said regarding the potential Strait of Hormuz coalition that Secretary of State Rubio will announce the countries, while he added it takes a while to get to the Hormuz and...

• US President Trump said he ordered a strike that wiped out every military target on Kharg Island, where Iran exports nearly all of its oil, but left the oil infrastructure intact; Crude holds around USD 100/bbl.
• US President Trump’s administration plans as soon as this week to announce a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, although they are still discussing if such operations would begin before or after hostilities have ended, WSJ reported.
• Trump...

• US President Trump said he ordered a strike that wiped out every military target on Kharg Island, which is where Iran exports nearly all of its oil from, but left the oil infrastructure intact. 
• US President Trump warned that NATO faces a very bad future if US allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump also said he was expecting China to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz before he travels to Beijing, while he stated that he may delay the...

• WEEKEND: US/China Meeting
• MON: Chinese Retail Sales (Jan-Feb), Canadian Inflation (Feb)
• TUE: RBA Policy Announcement, German ZEW Survey (Mar), Japanese Trade Balance (Feb)
• WED: BoC Policy Announcement, FOMC Policy Announcement and Press Conference, CBRT Minutes (Mar), US PPI (Feb), Japan Shunto Response
• THU: BoE Policy Announcement, BoJ Policy Announcement, ECB Policy Announcement, Riksbank Policy...

• US has issued a new Russia-related general license permitting the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12.
• ByteDance reportedly plans to tap NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell processors that are barred for export to China, with the Co. working with Aolani Cloud on plans to use some 500 Blackwell computing systems in Malaysia, according to WSJ.
• European equities soften, BESI NA surges on takeover rumours; US equity futures muted ahead...

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued, with the region cautious amid headwinds from the recent double-digit surge in oil prices.
• US officials noted they said from the start the war would last 4-5 weeks and may end in 2 weeks, with the decision up to Trump.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Sky News an international coalition could protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• USTR announced to initiate 60 Section 301 investigations related to failures...

• IEA OMR cut its 2026 global oil supply growth forecast by nearly half, stating the Middle East conflict as the largest oil supply disruption ever. 
• USTR Greer said the US is initiating a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India and Japan, which could lead to responsive actions, including tariffs.
• European equities hit as Iran conflict continues, while Defence names benefit; Oil prices continue to weigh...