• The US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island, which was then met with retaliatory Iranian strikes on US bases in Kuwait; explosions were also reported in Saudi Arabia, and air sirens were set off in the UAE.
• US CENTCOM said that the Iranian drone attacks were “successfully defeated”; Brent +1.2%.
• Before the latest flare-up, US President Trump said reports that Iran and the US stopped speaking a few days ago were false, and conversations had been ongoing...

• US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week.
• US equity futures lack direction just shy of ATHs, while European bourses reverse Monday's losses. 
• Global benchmarks benefit from lower energy prices, JGBs outperform following a solid 10yr auction.
• DXY muted, EUR directionless as EZ CPI surpasses...

• US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace; he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US bears direct responsibility for violations of the ceasefire with Iran and by Israel in Lebanon, adding that a violation on one front was equal to violations on all fronts.
• The US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe,...

• US President Trump sent tougher terms to Iran re. the peace framework, NY Times reported. Tasnim outlined that Iran could propose changes to the MOU.
• Israel expanded its ground offensive in Lebanon; PM Netanyahu said that it will attack targets in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
• Iran's FM Baghaei said that a ceasefire in Lebanon is an integral part of any agreement, adding that they are considering options for responding to the escalation of Israeli attacks in...

• Trump sent tougher terms to Iran re. the peace framework, NY Times reported. Tasnim outlined that Iran could propose changes to the MOU.
• Crude lifted at the open as a deal remains elusive, WTI briefly surpassed USD 90/bbl.
• APAC stocks firmer as the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI hit fresh record highs on tech strength, mixed Chinese PMIs capped the region.
• DXY followed oil higher, EUR contained, USD/JPY rose, and AUD struggled after Chinese...

Highlights include

• MON: Global Manufacturing Final PMIs (May), South Korean Balance of Trade (May), German Retail Sales (Apr), Swiss Retail Sales (Apr), GDP (Q1), EZ Unemployment Rate (Apr), US ISM Manufacturing (May)
• TUE: NBP Policy Announcement (Jun), South Korean CPI (May), EZ HICP (May), JOLTs Job Openings (Apr), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Zealand Export/Import Prices (Q1)
• WED: Fed Beige Book, Global Final PMIs (May), Australian GDP (Q1),...

• The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.
• A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.
• The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.
• Crude benchmarks are currently trading towards lows; Brent Aug’26...

• The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.
• A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.
• The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.
• APAC stocks headed into month-end on the front foot as the region took...

• A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
• IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.
• Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences...

• A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
• IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.
• Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences...

• US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East, while the IRGC affirm its right to respond to any ceasefire breach. 
• Global bourses pare Monday's gains after renewed US strikes on Iranian sites,...

• A US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said US strikes on Iran do not preclude a diplomatic deal and that an Iran deal is possible within days.
• A source familiar with talks between the high-level Iranian delegation and officials in Doha said Qatari mediation has...

• US President Trump posted on Saturday that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries.
• US and Iran were reportedly close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension, which could be extended by mutual consent, according to Axios.
• US senior officials said the naval blockade will only be lifted after Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, and no funds will be released until...

WEEK AHEAD

RBNZ POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The RBNZ is expected to keep its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% for a third consecutive meeting. A recent Reuters poll showed 28 of 29 economists surveyed called for a continued pause, while money markets priced in about a 69% chance of a hold and around a 31% likelihood of a 25bps hike. As a reminder, the RBNZ unsurprisingly maintained rates at its last meeting in April, although the language was hawkish, as it noted that inflation was...

• Al Arabiya and Al Hadath exclusively report the text of the anticipated US-Iran agreement in case of its approval. A Pakistani source said that cautious optimism is the prevailing sentiment in the ongoing discussions regarding the planned agreement.
• However, another Pakistani source said the US and Iran's insistence on raising the bar for their demand regarding uranium and the Strait of Hormuz has led to a "crisis in negotiations." 
• Crude on a firmer...

• US stocks ultimately closed higher in what was another choppy session dominated by contradictory geopolitical headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict.
• Al Arabiya TV was initially reported to have obtained the final draft of a prospective Pakistani-mediated US-Iran agreement, although it was later stated that these reports were fabricated.
• A senior Iranian source said no deal had been reached yet, but gaps have narrowed, with Iran's uranium enrichment and its...

• Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
• "Pakistan’s mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal’,"** according to journalist Mallick.
• European bourses are broadly higher despite disappointing PMIs; US equity futures are flat after NVDA sales...

• US President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages” and warned that the US military could have to get “a little bit nasty” if no agreement is reached, according to the New York Post.
• There had reportedly been progress in attempts to formulate a memorandum of understanding and guiding principles between the US and Iran, although significant gaps remained, according to Amichai Stein.
• FOMC minutes showed many policymakers would have preferred to...

• Iran-Pakistan cooperation has reportedly declined over the past two weeks, with a diplomatic source saying that Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks.
• The EU has finalised the text of its US trade deal, as the bloc races to meet US President Trump's July 4th deadline.
• European bourses softer, chip names firmer ahead of NVDA earnings.
• Lacklustre trade across G10s with the DXY slightly...

• Iran's position in talks with the US to end the war hasn't changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal, according to WSJ, citing mediators and US officials.
• US Vice President Vance said he had spoken with President Trump regarding Iran and stated that Tehran had two options: either reach an agreement or resume the war.
• A US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of...

• US President Trump posted on Truth that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place.
• US President Trump also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
• European bourses outpace their US peers, awaiting an update...

• US President Trump posted on Truth that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place.
• US President Trump also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
• US President Trump told The Post on Monday...

• US President Trump warned that the clock is ticking for Iran, though he declined to give a specific deadline. Situation room meeting due Tuesday.
• Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources.
• European bourses broadly in the red, but off lows as reports tout a sharing of US-Iran proposals.
• DXY reverses earlier gains, GBP helped by technicals & JPY lags on budget...

• US President Trump warned that the clock is ticking for Iran, though he declined to give a specific deadline. Situation room meeting due Tuesday.
• Crude bid on the US' escalatory rhetoric, lifting yields and weighing on equities and metals; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%.
• APAC stocks in the red, KOSPI activated the sidecar, China was hit by disappointing activity data.
• DXY found some modest strength from the above points, GBP/USD testing 1.33 to the...

WEEK AHEAD

RBA MINUTES (TUE): The RBA will release the minutes from its 4th-5th May meeting, when it raised the cash rate by 25bps to 4.35% for a third consecutive increase, reinforcing a firm tightening stance. The RBA said it expects inflation to peak at around 4.8% in June and only return to target by mid-2027, while the Middle East shock is adding a stagflationary impulse through higher energy costs. The decision was made by an 8-1 vote, indicating stronger internal alignment. However, RBA Governor...