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  • The US military has carried out strikes in Iran's Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official, who said it is not a restart of the war. Iran's military said the US violated the ceasefire.
  • US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians. He added that Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations. Remarks which have helped energy prices ease from highs.
  • The...
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  • The US military has carried out strikes in Iran's Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official. The official said this is not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire.
  • The US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes against Iranian military facilities.
  • US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians. He added that Pakistan...
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  • Al Arabiya reported that "the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait", spurring pressure in the crude complex.
  • Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, according to CNN, citing a regional source.
  • US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, according to Axios, citing US...
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  • Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, according to CNN, citing a regional source. 
  • US President Trump is optimistic about the Iran framework, and that the timeframe is one week, Fox reported. 
  • US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, according to Axios, citing US officials.
  • US President Trump's reversal on...
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  • Crude & USD dented, equities & fixed bid after Trump paused Project Freedom and more recently as Axios reports that the US & Iran are closing in on an MOU to end the conflict.
  • Brent below USD 101.50/bbl, ES +0.7%, DAX 40 +2.5%, EUR/USD above 1.1770, Bunds firmer by over 80 ticks.
  • JPY was likely the subject of intervention overnight, falling from 157.00 to a 155.03 low, but has since rebounded back towards the 156.00...
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  • Energy was pressured by Trump announcing a pause to Project Freedom, though the blockade remains.
  • To the benefit of fixed income and G10 FX against the USD. USD/JPY slumped to a 155.03 low.
  • APAC equities benefited from the above; US and European futures point to a constructive open. NQ leads post-AMD.
  • Israeli security/military officials reportedly believe negotiations are a waste of time, and conveyed to the US a desire to resume attacks on...
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  • US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.
  • US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."
  • European and US equity futures are...
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  • US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.
  • US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."
  • RBA announcement saw a near-unanimous...
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  • US President Trump posted on Sunday that the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom”, beginning Monday morning Middle East time.
  • An Iranian official said any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. Iranian Major Abdullahi said any foreign armed forces, particularly the US, would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of...
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  • US President Trump posted on Sunday that the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom”, beginning Monday morning Middle East time.
  • An Iranian official said any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.
  • US President Trump posted at 23:47 BST on May 2nd that he would review Iran’s proposal but “can’t imagine that it would be acceptable”, Trump...
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  • Conditions in Europe thin amid Labour Day, FTSE 100 dragged by NatWest and AstraZeneca.
  • US equity futures are modestly mixed. Apple (+2.8%) gains after strong results, driven by iPhone sales; SanDisk (-6.1%) dips despite a strong Q3 report.
  • DXY is a touch lower; USD/JPY sank to a 155 handle, potentially on intervention.
  • Fixed income futures are contained in limited conditions, with US data ahead.
  • Crude futures remain...
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  • US President Trump said Iran is dying to make a deal and stated that Iran cannot be nuclear-armed. He added that he doesn't know if the ceasefire with Iran needs to be broken, but "we may do".
  • The US may allow Israel to target Iran's energy facilities if negotiations fail, according to Channel 12 cited by Al Arabiya.
  • Apple (AAPL) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 2.01 (exp. 1.95), Revenue 111.2bln (exp. 109.45bln). Raised its dividend by 4% to USD 0.27/shr. Apple provided Q3...
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  • US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported, citing sources. The plan includes a short and powerful strike, potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock.
  • The Axios report initially lifted the crude complex, but contracts have recently slipped towards lows, lacking a clear driver.
  • Pakistan's Foreign Ministry says channels of dialogue with officials in Washington...
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  • US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported citing sources. The plan includes a short and powerful strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock.
  • The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% as expected; voted 8-4 to hold rates (Miran voted for a 25bps rate reduction; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan dissented on easing bias in statement).
  • Within the FOMC statement, a key...
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  • Trump has told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, WSJ; Trump said they are doing very well in the Middle East.
  • An update that lifted energy briefly overnight and while the move pared into the European morning, benchmarks are at fresh highs with WTI peaking just below USD 104/bbl.
  • The fresh energy highs have weighed on fixed, though only modestly pre-FOMC and with brief EGB respite on German state CPIs.
  • USD lifts into the...
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  • Trump has told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, WSJ; Trump said they are doing very well in the Middle East.
  • APAC equity performance incrementally improved across the session, with outperformance in the Hang Seng & Shanghai Composite.
  • USD rangebound, lifted briefly on the WSJ report. Peers are broadly contained into the Fed.
  • Fixed income was hit on the WSJ report, but has since retraced the...
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  • US President Trump is reportedly not satisfied with and is unlikely to accept the Iranian proposal; CNN reports that the US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem.
  • BoJ maintained its policy rate as expected, though subject to a hawkish 6-3 vote split, dissenters highlighted upside risks to inflation. Ueda non-committal on the timing of the next move.
  • European bourses firmer, lifting incrementally after a contained open. US futures are mixed/lower into...
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  • US President Trump is reportedly not satisfied with and is unlikely to accept the Iranian proposal; CNN reports that the US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem.
  • BoJ maintained its policy rate as expected, though subject to a hawkish 6-3 vote split, dissenters highlighted upside risks to inflation.
  • APAC pressured after the reporting around Trump, Nikkei 225 underperformed after the BoJ's hawkish-hold.
  • DXY initially contained but then...
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  • Iran communicated a three-stage negotiating process to the US; 1) focus on ending the war and receiving guarantees, 2) then on the Strait of Hormuz, 3) and finally on nuclear issues.
  • The US cancelled sending Witkoff & Kushner to Pakistan, suggesting it was a waste of time; Trump is to hold a situation room meeting on Monday, Axios.
  • European bourses are modestly mixed, with US equity futures also holding around the unchanged mark; Qualcomm +12% on reports of an...
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  • Iran communicated a three-stage negotiating process to the US. The US cancelled sending Witkoff & Kushner to Pakistan; Trump to hold a situation room meeting on Monday, Axios.
  • APAC stocks benefited from reporting around the Iranian communication, both European & US futures point to a contained open.
  • DXY under pressure to the modest benefit of peers across the board, antipodeans lead after the Axios report.
  • Fixed income softer but off...
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  • "Israeli media: A limited operation against Iran may be carried out to avoid a prolonged war", Al Arabiya reports.
  • Chinese Securities Regulator says that China is to allow qualified foreign investors to trade treasury futures from April 24, 2026, for hedging purposes only.
  • Downbeat sentiment across European bourses, SAP +6% after a EUR 10bln share buyback; NQ outperforms, with INTC +23% post-earnings.
  • FX price action lacklustre, CHF and JPY...
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  • Israel is on high alert in anticipation of a possible renewed war this weekend, according to Al Arabiya, citing Channel 13.
  • Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ghalibaf resigns from the negotiating team following the intervention of the IRGC, N12 news reported.
  • US President Trump said the US is to work with Lebanon to protect itself from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is to be extended by three weeks.
  • NQ futures outperformed...
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  • "Somalia closes Bab al-Mandab Strait to Israeli shipping", IRNA reports; "The move comes as a direct response to Israel’s recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland, Yemen Press Agency reported on Wednesday".
  • European bourses are mostly lower; US equity futures also extend lower, TSLA -2.7% post-earnings.
  • USD and NOK outperform, GBP shrugs off political instability as PMIs firm, NZD underperforms.
  • EZ PMIs initially helped fixed income...
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  • US President Trump expects Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi to remain part of Iran talks and said the 3-5 day ceasefire is not true, according to Fox.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has welcomed dialogue and continues to do so, while he stated that a breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations.
  • Crude futures were higher but off today's best levels after an early aggressive move to the upside was faded shortly...
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  • US President Trump expects Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi to remain part of Iran talks and said the 3-5 day ceasefire is not true, according to Fox.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has welcomed dialogue and continues to do so, while he stated that a breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations.
  • Crude futures were higher but off today's best levels after an early aggressive move to the upside was faded shortly...
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